Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | PV -108 ALST -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +15 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -3.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.5 (-17.5) | 154.3 (+20.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.9 (-16.9) | 152.0 (+23.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.0 (-17.0) | 151.0 (+24.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.1 (-17.1) | 151.3 (+23.7) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 2, 2021 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#315) | -10.6 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#305) | -1.85 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#294) | -2.38 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#324) | 0.412 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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