Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -425 PV +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -8.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -8.2 (-5.2) | 154.3 (-25.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -7.8 (-4.8) | 156.0 (-27.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -7.2 (-4.2) | 155.4 (-26.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -7.2 (-4.2) | 156.1 (-27.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 2, 2021 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-3 | 3-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#277) | -12.5 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#275) | -2.95 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#277) | -3.70 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#297) | 0.392 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 26.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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