Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +750 PV -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -12.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -10.2 (+7.2) | 135.0 (+2.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -9.0 (+6.0) | 133.8 (+3.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -11.6 (+8.6) | 132.8 (+4.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -10.5 (+7.5) | 134.5 (+2.5) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-0 |
| Home | 3-6 | 8-0 |
| Away | 1-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -18.3 (#344) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#339) | 0.51 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.18 (#340) | -0.10 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#343) | 0.532 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 27.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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