Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PV -138 ALST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -1.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.0 (-7.0) | 140.0 (+1.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.5 (-8.5) | 136.8 (+4.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.7 (-7.7) | 133.9 (+7.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.4 (-7.4) | 135.1 (+5.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 2, 2021 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#307) | -6.0 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#234) | -0.45 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#241) | -0.85 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#255) | 0.490 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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