We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Southwestern Athletic Conference · William Nicks Building · January 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PV -3.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money PV -138 / ALST +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total PV win
Actual ALST +7 141 Lost
Massey PV -1.1 (-8.1)
Massey Totals 135.0 (+6.0)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 68%
Efficiency Plus ML PV -1.5 (-8.5) 136.8 (+4.2) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML PV -0.7 (-7.7) 133.9 (+7.1) 52%
Baseline ML PV -0.4 (-7.4) 135.1 (+5.9) 48%
Baseline Plus ML ALST -0.0 (-7.0) 140.0 (+1.0) 47%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 ALST 9580 PV
Jan 25, 2025 ALST 6663 PV
Jan 22, 2023 ALST 5655 PV
Jan 22, 2022 PV 7067 ALST
Mar 2, 2021 PV 7067 ALST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PV ALST
Overall 10-21 13-19
Conference 5-13 8-10
Home 5-6 7-5
Away 4-15 3-13
Neutral 1-0 3-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L7 L1
Avg Pts For 68.8 66.1
Avg Pts Against 77.3 70.9
Massey -8.6 (#307) -6.0 (#277)
Bradley-Terry -0.60 (#234) -0.45 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.83 (#241) -0.85 (#245)
RPI 0.457 (#255) 0.490 (#187)
Shooting & Four Factors PV ALST
FG% 39.9% 36.3%
3PT% 30.7% 30.5%
REB / G 31.1 37.9
OREB / G 10.7 13.1
AST / TO 0.79 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.9% 41.9%
TOV% 17.8% 16.2%
ORB% 27.1% 29.7%
FT Rate 23.9% 18.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.4% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 19.9%
DRB% 63.0% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 36.0% 30.7%

Game Analysis

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