Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -138 MRST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -5.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.9 (+1.1) | 127.5 (-13.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.9 (+2.1) | 126.4 (-12.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.8 (+1.2) | 127.7 (-13.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.2 (+0.8) | 127.4 (-13.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#260) | -7.5 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#314) | -1.40 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#308) | -1.82 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#312) | 0.419 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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