Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -150 MSM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -4.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.6 (-21.6) | 131.7 (+2.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.9 (-19.9) | 129.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.6 (-20.6) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.1 (-21.1) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSM 65 – 48 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#225) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#252) | -1.80 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#262) | -1.95 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#269) | 0.410 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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