Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -440 MSM +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -21.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -14.0 (-6.0) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -13.7 (-5.7) | 133.5 (-13.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -13.1 (-5.1) | 133.9 (-13.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -15.0 (-7.0) | 132.2 (-12.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSM 65 – 48 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#131) | -13.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#271) | -2.61 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#270) | -3.90 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#255) | 0.395 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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