Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -240 MSM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +3 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-38.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.7 (+0.3) | 136.8 (-33.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.9 (+1.1) | 141.4 (-38.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.3 (+0.7) | 142.5 (-39.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.7 (+0.3) | 140.2 (-37.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSM 65 – 48 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#255) | -4.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#193) | 1.11 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#217) | 0.86 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#238) | 0.560 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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