Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -175 MRST +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +17 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.5 (+15.5) | 137.1 (-24.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.4 (+15.6) | 133.0 (-20.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.7 (+15.3) | 133.8 (-20.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.6 (+15.4) | 135.6 (-22.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#213) | -1.8 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#305) | -0.72 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#292) | -1.03 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#304) | 0.439 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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