Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -195 MSM +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -0.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.6 (-3.4) | 129.3 (-9.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.2 (-3.8) | 128.1 (-8.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.4 (-3.6) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.7 (-3.3) | 129.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSM 65 – 48 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#262) | -5.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#183) | -0.25 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#221) | -0.65 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#184) | 0.515 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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