Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -135 MRST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.7 (+7.3) | 132.7 (-18.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.4 (+7.6) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.7 (+7.3) | 131.6 (-17.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.7 (+7.3) | 133.0 (-19.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSM 65 – 48 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -5.6 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#198) | -0.11 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#224) | -0.66 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.501 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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