Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MONT +100 MTST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.2 (-3.2) | 136.2 (-5.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.7 (-2.3) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.0 (-3.0) | 135.5 (-4.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.3 (-3.3) | 136.6 (-5.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#153) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#214) | 0.23 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#193) | 0.44 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#216) | 0.517 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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