Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -245 MONT +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.5 (+3.5) | 146.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.3 (+4.7) | 147.6 (-4.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.5 (+4.5) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.6 (+4.4) | 145.4 (-2.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MONT 88 – 69 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | -1.3 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#194) | -0.14 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | -0.01 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#200) | 0.491 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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