Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -175 MTST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.7 (+6.3) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -1.1 (+5.9) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.8 (+6.2) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.8 (+6.2) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MONT 88 – 69 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#233) | -0.6 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | -0.86 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -0.56 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#109) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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