Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -130 MONT +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -3.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.8 (-5.8) | 146.3 (+27.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.0 (-6.0) | 144.2 (+29.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.7 (-4.7) | 144.5 (+29.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.3 (-5.3) | 145.5 (+28.5) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MONT 88 – 69 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#181) | -1.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#235) | 0.86 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#210) | 0.61 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#243) | 0.562 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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