Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -300 MTST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -8.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -6.7 (+12.3) | 143.0 (+14.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -6.9 (+12.1) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -6.4 (+12.6) | 146.8 (+10.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -7.5 (+11.5) | 148.1 (+8.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | -0.64 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#146) | -0.79 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#123) | 0.459 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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