Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -275 MTST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +15 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -5.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -3.9 (-18.9) | 146.4 (+8.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.4 (-18.4) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.3 (-19.3) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.5 (-19.5) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MONT 88 – 69 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#123) | -0.45 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | -0.51 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#84) | 0.473 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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