Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -135 MTST +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -1.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.7 (-11.7) | 143.7 (+9.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -0.8 (-11.8) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -1.6 (-12.6) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.7 (-11.7) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MONT 88 – 69 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#180) | -0.18 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#167) | 0.16 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#181) | 0.492 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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