Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -175 ORST +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +20 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -3.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.8 (-21.8) | 127.0 (-11.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.2 (-21.2) | 132.7 (-16.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.7 (-21.7) | 131.7 (-15.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.1 (-21.1) | 130.3 (-14.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | CAL 81 – 73 ORST |
| Mar 5, 2023 | ORST 69 – 66 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CAL 63 – 61 ORST |
| Dec 3, 2021 | CAL 73 – 61 ORST |
| Feb 26, 2021 | ORST 59 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 5-15 |
| Home | 3-14 | 10-7 |
| Away | 0-12 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 60.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#225) | -2.7 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#311) | -0.60 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#283) | -0.99 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#290) | 0.455 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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