Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Pac-12 Conference · Haas Pavilion · January 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -3.5 Away covered
O/U 122.5 Under
Money CAL -175 / ORST +138
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual ORST +20 116 Lost
Massey CAL -3.8 (-23.8)
Massey Totals 119.9 (-3.9)
Bradley-Terry 42%
Weighted B-T 57%
Efficiency Plus ML CAL -1.8 (-21.8) 127.0 (-11.0) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -1.2 (-21.2) 132.7 (-16.7) 57%
Baseline ML CAL -1.7 (-21.7) 131.7 (-15.7) 54%
Baseline Plus ML CAL -1.1 (-21.1) 130.3 (-14.3) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 23, 2024 CAL 8173 ORST
Mar 5, 2023 ORST 6966 CAL
Feb 10, 2022 CAL 6361 ORST
Dec 3, 2021 CAL 7361 ORST
Feb 26, 2021 ORST 5957 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL ORST
Overall 3-29 11-21
Conference 2-18 5-15
Home 3-14 10-7
Away 0-12 1-10
Neutral 0-3 0-4
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L16 L1
Avg Pts For 58.3 60.5
Avg Pts Against 70.1 67.0
Massey -2.5 (#225) -2.7 (#227)
Bradley-Terry -1.53 (#311) -0.60 (#235)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.43 (#283) -0.99 (#254)
RPI 0.439 (#290) 0.455 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL ORST
FG% 41.9% 41.9%
3PT% 30.8% 33.4%
REB / G 31.4 30.3
OREB / G 8.7 7.1
AST / TO 0.76 0.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.9% 48.0%
TOV% 20.6% 21.0%
ORB% 27.1% 23.2%
FT Rate 24.5% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.1% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 17.8%
DRB% 70.5% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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