Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -8.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -3.9 (+8.1) | 132.8 (+1.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -4.8 (+7.2) | 137.5 (-3.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -5.4 (+6.6) | 137.4 (-3.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -5.1 (+6.9) | 137.5 (-3.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | CAL 81 – 73 ORST |
| Mar 5, 2023 | ORST 69 – 66 CAL |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ORST 68 – 48 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CAL 63 – 61 ORST |
| Feb 26, 2021 | ORST 59 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 1-19 |
| Home | 10-8 | 3-13 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#203) | -3.2 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#189) | -2.35 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#160) | -2.98 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#154) | 0.422 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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