Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +110 ORST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | ORST -1.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -0.4 (-1.6) | 129.5 (-13.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -0.4 (-2.4) | 132.1 (-16.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -0.2 (-1.8) | 133.1 (-17.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -0.5 (-1.5) | 132.7 (-16.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | CAL 81 – 73 ORST |
| Mar 5, 2023 | ORST 69 – 66 CAL |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ORST 68 – 48 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CAL 63 – 61 ORST |
| Dec 3, 2021 | CAL 73 – 61 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#172) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#191) | 0.56 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#174) | 1.04 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#232) | 0.493 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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