Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +1100 GONZ -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 189 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -13.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -12.3 (+3.3) | 159.8 (+29.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.2 (+3.2) | 165.0 (+24.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -11.8 (+2.8) | 160.9 (+28.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.5 (+3.5) | 163.1 (+25.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | GONZ 71 – 62 PAC |
| Feb 9, 2025 | GONZ 78 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 18, 2024 | GONZ 102 – 76 PAC |
| Jan 28, 2024 | GONZ 82 – 73 PAC |
| Feb 11, 2022 | GONZ 89 – 51 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 7-10 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#222) | 14.4 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#220) | 3.10 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#217) | 4.26 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#271) | 0.650 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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