Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +3300 GONZ -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -27.1 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.7 (+10.7) | 148.7 (+6.3) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -16.7 (+7.7) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -15.0 (+6.0) | 147.1 (+7.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -18.8 (+9.8) | 149.8 (+5.2) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | GONZ 71 – 62 PAC |
| Feb 9, 2025 | GONZ 78 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 18, 2024 | GONZ 102 – 76 PAC |
| Jan 22, 2023 | GONZ 99 – 90 PAC |
| Feb 11, 2022 | GONZ 89 – 51 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 14-2 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -16.5 (#360) | 14.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#327) | 1.76 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#332) | 2.42 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#336) | 0.581 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 26.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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