Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -5000 PAC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -22.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.6 (-10.6) | 141.6 (-8.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -20.5 (-11.5) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -18.0 (-9.0) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -18.6 (-9.6) | 144.2 (-11.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2025 | GONZ 78 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 18, 2024 | GONZ 102 – 76 PAC |
| Jan 28, 2024 | GONZ 82 – 73 PAC |
| Jan 22, 2023 | GONZ 99 – 90 PAC |
| Feb 11, 2022 | GONZ 89 – 51 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 23.4 (#7) | 3.5 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#7) | 0.40 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.01 (#6) | 0.68 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#18) | 0.518 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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