Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -175 USC +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -4.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -4.3 (-12.3) | 138.0 (+8.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -3.8 (-11.8) | 139.9 (+6.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -4.2 (-12.2) | 138.7 (+7.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -4.3 (-12.3) | 138.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#52) | 8.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#37) | 1.64 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#40) | 1.92 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#37) | 0.581 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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