Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USC -500 ASU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.2 (+2.8) | 147.8 (+6.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.8 (+2.2) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -5.4 (+2.6) | 145.4 (+8.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.5 (+2.5) | 146.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | USC 77 – 69 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#93) | 3.3 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#125) | 0.84 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#120) | 1.03 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#133) | 0.530 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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