Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -225 USC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -0.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -1.4 (+13.6) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -1.3 (+13.7) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -1.7 (+13.3) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -1.7 (+13.3) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | USC 77 – 69 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | 7.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#89) | 0.67 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#89) | 1.04 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#67) | 0.541 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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