I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
USC Trojans
68 65
FINAL Conference
Arizona State Sun Devils
Pac-12 Conference · Galen Center · March 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USC -5.0 Away covered
O/U 141.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total USC win
Actual USC +3 133 Won
Massey USC -6.0 (-3.0)
Massey Totals 141.6 (-8.6)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 76%
Efficiency Plus ML USC -5.8 (-2.8) 147.0 (-14.0) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML USC -6.8 (-3.8) 144.9 (-11.9) 76%
Baseline ML USC -6.7 (-3.7) 144.9 (-11.9) 80%
Baseline Plus ML USC -6.3 (-3.3) 146.2 (-13.2) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2025 USC 8875 ASU
Mar 8, 2024 USC 8173 ASU
Jan 20, 2024 ASU 8267 USC
Mar 10, 2023 ASU 7772 USC
Jan 22, 2023 USC 7769 ASU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USC ASU
Overall 22-11 23-13
Conference 14-6 11-9
Home 15-2 10-5
Away 5-5 7-6
Neutral 2-4 6-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 71.1
Avg Pts Against 67.4 68.0
Massey 11.0 (#35) 8.5 (#69)
Bradley-Terry 1.77 (#46) 1.53 (#62)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.24 (#50) 1.78 (#64)
RPI 0.576 (#47) 0.560 (#68)
Shooting & Four Factors USC ASU
FG% 45.9% 42.2%
3PT% 34.6% 31.7%
REB / G 35.2 37.1
OREB / G 9.4 10.9
AST / TO 1.11 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 48.4%
TOV% 17.9% 17.1%
ORB% 28.7% 28.9%
FT Rate 24.4% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.5% 46.0%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 20.5%
DRB% 67.5% 68.4%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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