Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.3 (-3.3) | 146.2 (-13.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.8 (-2.8) | 147.0 (-14.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.8 (-3.8) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.7 (-3.7) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Jan 22, 2023 | USC 77 – 69 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#35) | 8.5 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#46) | 1.53 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#50) | 1.78 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#47) | 0.560 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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