Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | USC -210 ASU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -2.5 (-7.5) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -2.3 (-7.3) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.0 (-8.0) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -2.9 (-7.9) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | USC 77 – 69 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#36) | 8.6 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#45) | 1.51 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#45) | 1.77 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#48) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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