Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | ASU +185 USC -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +13 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -9.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.7 (-6.3) | 160.6 (+2.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.3 (-7.7) | 160.6 (+2.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.5 (-6.5) | 159.6 (+3.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.9 (-7.1) | 157.9 (+5.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | USC 77 – 69 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#122) | 12.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#49) | 3.61 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#45) | 5.30 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#102) | 0.728 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 39.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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