Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -275 VAL +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +20 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -7.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.4 (-24.4) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -4.2 (-24.2) | 134.9 (-12.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.3 (-24.3) | 136.4 (-14.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -4.2 (-24.2) | 137.3 (-15.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#239) | -8.0 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#256) | -1.14 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#247) | -1.53 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#270) | 0.425 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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