Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -470 VAL +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -9.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.7 (+14.3) | 136.0 (+14.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.3 (+13.7) | 135.8 (+14.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -9.1 (+12.9) | 135.8 (+14.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.6 (+13.4) | 137.2 (+12.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
| Feb 12, 2023 | VAL 81 – 76 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#83) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#132) | -0.06 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#122) | 0.01 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#94) | 0.478 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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