Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -360 VAL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -8.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.2 (-0.2) | 142.4 (+21.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -7.7 (+0.3) | 144.8 (+19.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -7.5 (+0.5) | 144.7 (+19.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.5 (-0.5) | 144.5 (+19.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
| Feb 12, 2023 | VAL 81 – 76 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#126) | -3.4 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#136) | -0.69 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#134) | -1.00 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.456 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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