Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -150 ILST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -1.4 (+3.6) | 140.6 (+16.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.5 (+4.5) | 137.6 (+19.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -1.8 (+3.2) | 141.5 (+15.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -1.0 (+4.0) | 143.2 (+13.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#289) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#271) | -0.83 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#274) | -1.17 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#291) | 0.445 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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