Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +250 ILST -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -9.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -7.6 (+13.6) | 135.6 (+12.4) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.5 (+13.5) | 135.2 (+12.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.7 (+14.7) | 133.6 (+14.4) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -8.0 (+14.0) | 134.7 (+13.3) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
| Feb 12, 2023 | VAL 81 – 76 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#198) | 10.6 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#252) | 1.59 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#236) | 1.83 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#281) | 0.559 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.