Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +163 ILST -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -3.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.0 (+7.0) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.8 (+6.8) | 134.7 (+12.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -3.6 (+6.6) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -4.1 (+7.1) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
| Feb 12, 2023 | VAL 81 – 76 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#295) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#314) | 0.10 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#297) | 0.14 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#317) | 0.501 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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