Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -225 UTA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -3.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -2.2 (+13.8) | 135.7 (+16.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -2.9 (+13.1) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -2.3 (+13.7) | 138.0 (+14.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -2.3 (+13.7) | 137.9 (+14.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#253) | -5.2 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#260) | -0.86 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#264) | -0.96 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#268) | 0.461 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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