Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -133 FLA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -2.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.0 (-4.0) | 129.8 (-9.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.8 (-4.8) | 128.4 (-8.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.1 (-4.1) | 127.7 (-7.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -1.8 (-3.8) | 127.3 (-7.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 19, 2022 | FLA 80 – 72 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#57) | 10.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#56) | 1.17 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#65) | 1.71 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#77) | 0.555 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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