Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -188 MSST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -3.1 (+5.9) | 152.8 (-3.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -3.2 (+5.8) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.8 (+6.2) | 149.7 (-0.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.2 (+5.8) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 19, 2022 | FLA 80 – 72 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#41) | 11.5 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#57) | 1.96 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#42) | 2.77 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#50) | 0.589 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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