Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -140 FLA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -4.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.0 (-9.0) | 150.6 (-1.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.9 (-11.1) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.8 (-10.2) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.7 (-10.3) | 148.0 (+1.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 19, 2022 | FLA 80 – 72 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#29) | 22.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#12) | 4.14 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#19) | 5.65 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#18) | 0.650 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.