Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -5.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.5 (+3.5) | 141.3 (+10.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.3 (+3.7) | 138.5 (+13.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -4.6 (+3.4) | 141.6 (+10.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -4.8 (+3.2) | 143.7 (+8.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#34) | 9.9 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#75) | 1.60 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#73) | 1.89 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#85) | 0.569 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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