Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -4000 MSST +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +34 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -22.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -17.5 (+16.5) | 158.5 (+23.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -19.3 (+14.7) | 158.4 (+23.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -19.9 (+14.1) | 157.6 (+24.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -20.8 (+13.2) | 160.5 (+21.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 19, 2022 | FLA 80 – 72 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 25.1 (#4) | 5.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#10) | 0.98 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#6) | 1.54 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#9) | 0.507 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 45.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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