Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | FLA +175 MSST -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -0.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.4 (+0.4) | 131.7 (+5.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.1 (+1.1) | 131.5 (+5.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.9 (-0.1) | 131.3 (+5.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -1.0 (-0.0) | 132.3 (+4.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 19, 2022 | FLA 80 – 72 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#55) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#73) | 1.76 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#70) | 2.18 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#86) | 0.559 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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