Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -500 MD +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.3 (-8.3) | 130.4 (-17.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.9 (-7.9) | 132.7 (-19.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.7 (-7.7) | 132.4 (-19.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.0 (-8.0) | 132.3 (-19.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PUR 62 – 61 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#7) | 9.8 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#2) | 1.73 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.88 (#1) | 2.22 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#5) | 0.587 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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