Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MD -111 PUR -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -0.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.0 (+13.0) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -0.4 (+13.6) | 130.9 (-8.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.3 (+12.7) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.5 (+12.5) | 133.8 (-11.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PUR 62 – 61 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#27) | 16.4 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#40) | 3.46 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#34) | 4.46 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#32) | 0.638 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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