Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MD +240 PUR -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -12.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.8 (-6.2) | 144.2 (-24.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.0 (-7.0) | 142.1 (-22.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.2 (-5.8) | 142.5 (-22.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.2 (-5.8) | 142.6 (-22.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PUR 62 – 61 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#90) | 22.1 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | 3.92 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#128) | 5.22 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#161) | 0.693 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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