Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MD +950 PUR -1650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +30 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -17.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -13.8 (-16.2) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.4 (-18.6) | 144.4 (+11.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.7 (-17.3) | 144.1 (+11.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -13.6 (-16.4) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PUR 62 – 61 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | 21.6 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#131) | 3.53 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#122) | 4.67 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#155) | 0.650 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 2.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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