Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -200 MD +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.5 (+6.5) | 141.8 (+19.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.7 (+3.3) | 142.3 (+18.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.3 (+3.7) | 141.3 (+19.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.2 (+4.8) | 142.7 (+18.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PUR 62 – 61 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#34) | 20.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#20) | 2.17 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#18) | 3.47 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#11) | 0.571 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.