Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -2000 MD +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -16.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.7 (-13.7) | 155.0 (-32.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -13.4 (-12.4) | 150.0 (-27.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.5 (-11.5) | 156.0 (-33.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -13.5 (-12.5) | 156.1 (-33.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#7) | 5.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#8) | 0.96 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#10) | 1.29 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#13) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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