Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1600 BTLR +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -15.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.4 (+18.6) | 141.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -14.0 (+16.0) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.9 (+18.1) | 140.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.4 (+18.6) | 139.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#5) | 6.4 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#21) | 1.01 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#11) | 1.31 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#31) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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